Are you surprised that Republicans are surprised they lost? If you were following the polls guru Nate Silver’s blog fivethirtyeight.com you would be. It’s not that I was certain Obama would win. But reading Nate Silver’s estimates before the elections gave me odds to be cautiosly optimistic. The day before the election I estimated the chance of Obama winning (based on Nate’s 91%), in poker terms, like being all in with pocket kings pre flop. In other words, you’re in … Read More
The below piece will run in next Monday’s edition of the Wharton Journal, hopefully reaching hundreds of registered Pennsylvania voters just before the election. It’s part of a set of “dueling” opinion pieces, one pro-Romney and one pro-Obama. I thought I’d share it with you. *** President Obama has done an extraordinary job in the face of a global financial catastrophe and shocking levels of Republican obstruction. Over the next four years, he offers a balanced agenda to support growth … Read More
Reading John Caputo’s On Religion while the media muse over whether this year’s presidential election campaign is the most divisive in American history has me thinking. In the book, Caputo takes up the Augustinian question “what do I love when I love my God?” and points to the statement ‘God is love,’ for illumination. Some simple substitution might hint at an answer to the question: when you love God, you love love. I think that, semantically, this makes the question a lot more … Read More
It looks like Rick Perry isn’t the only one with an “oops” moment these days. Like many primary-watchers, I completely misread the Newt Gingrich situation. Just a month ago, I referred to Intrade’s seemingly overstated forecast of Gingrich’s 11% chances of winning the nomination as “madness.” Now, his Intrade odds stand at 35% and he leads in most polls, including those in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Oops. At the very least, I’m in good company. According to … Read More
This morning the Manchester Union-Leader, an influential newspaper in New Hampshire, endorsed Republican presidential candidate New Gingrich for the January 10, 2012 New Hampshire primary. The Union-Leader passed over frontrunner Mitt Romney despite (or perhaps because of) their familiarity with him from his time as governor of neighboring Massachusetts, several years of his assiduously courting NH voters and the newspaper’s editorial staff, and his large lead in current NH primary polls. Political media have had their sights trained on the Granite State … Read More
For months now, the political media have advanced the narrative that Mitt Romney is trapped under a ceiling of about 25% of the GOP primary electorate, that he can never win over the conservative wing. Hence the month-by-month hero worship (and inevitable disappointment) of Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and, now, Gingrich (please, please, please!). While it’s plenty fun to watch the GOP flail around, there is little support for the view that Romney “cannot” win the nomination. The latest expression … Read More
I keep waiting for it: the first general election attack on Mitt Romney. Though still well within the formal primary phase of the 2012 campaign, my view has largely moved to the seemingly inevitable head-to-head clash between Romney and President Obama. I don’t like what I see. It’ll be a nasty fight. And I foresee some of the nastiest of it emanating from “our” side.