Prediction: There Will Be No Government Shutdown

photo: aoc.gov

There, I put it in print. I’m on the record. I think the Republicans will cave (in this small regard) and drop the rider attached to the budget that defunds Planned Parenthood.

The Republicans will have gotten us to push the cuts to $38 billion, so they are majorly winning this one, but at least we’ll be able to claim a small victory.

Let’s see if I’m right…

UPDATE: Several hours later and I’m feeling less confident about my prediction. Still 11 hours to go though…

What I am increasingly confident about, however, is that if the government does shut down, the media narrative will be that the reason for the shutdown was ultimately Republican insistence on removing “abortion” funding from the budget (even though that’s not true—they’re insisting on defunding Planned Parenthood, which only spends 3% of its budget on abortions, and none of that comes from federal funding). Though that may make some intensely pro-life Republicans happy, I think the vast majority of the American public are going to find that an unacceptable rationale for shutdown, especially given how much the Democrats were willing to give up in this compromise.

If this shutdown happens, it will be a very bad thing for the Republicans. Consider that another prediction.

I’ll move on to stock tips and horoscopes next.

UPDATE II: A couple of hours later, still no deal. It really feels to me like Republicans are on the ropes. Even Republicans in the Senate are saying the House GOP should drop the Planned Parenthood rider.

At this point, I think Reid should stop negotiating entirely. He’s given them $38 billion in cuts. They either drop the Planned Parenthood rider, or they shutdown the government. If Reid plays a good game of chicken, I think he will win. And even if the shutdown happens, the Republicans will be badly scarred from it having happened. The shutdown will end in a week with a substantially weakened GOP.

The foolish thing to do now would be for Reid or the White House to compromise even further. So I’m guessing that’s what we can expect to happen.

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